ACFC 1-2 San Diego Wave

This game left a bad taste in my mouth, not just because of the loss, and not because we’ve now lost four in a row, but because I really thought that we didn’t deserve this, and it hurts watching San Diego celebrating a win on our field that I don’t think they particularly earned.

This didn’t necessarily feel like a game of two halves, as all three goals came in the second half, but I really think that it was. In particular is Possession. San Diego is one of the top Possession teams in the league, at 56.4%, 3rd in the league. At the end of the first half, though, Angel City had more Possession, 55%-45%. At halftime, though, the Wave replaced Corley with Godfrey and Ludmila with Byers, while ACFC took off Endo for Chilufya, and from 46’-60’, San Diego saw their possession go up 66%-34%. In the 63’ Gabi Portilho was replaced with Mel Barcenas, while for ACFC, Fuller was replaced by Tiernan in the 68’. This was the point where things really shifted. Both Chilufya and Tiernan were playing higher than Endo and Fuller had been, while for San Diego, Byars played higher, while Barcenas was lower, giving them better shape and spacing. This led to San Diego absolutely dominating Possession from the 61’ to the 75’, 83%-17%. This pressure, of course, culminated in the their second goal.

Other metrics that go along with this are Recoveries per minute, where Angel City had their lowest share of the game 0.13 (for the game, ACFC averaged 0.32. They were also attempting the most Long Passes, and had the lowest Pass Accuracy % (47%, down from 72% for the match) during this stretch. An interesting aspect is that PPDA wasn’t really down too much in this stretch (8.3 from an average of 7.0 for the game). So Angel City wasn’t letting San Diego have the ball, they just simply couldn’t keep it when they won it, pretty much always giving the ball straight back. An argument can be made that this didn’t actually work for San Diego, as their two goals both came from very direct actions. But I think that possession wore down Angel City, and possibly that variation in led to the defense letting their guard down.

The discrepancy in halves was also evident in Shots. By Hudl’s count, Shots were 3-3 at the end of the first half, but Angel City had 5 in second half, while the Wave had 8. By other counts, this was a closer total, for instance ESPN had it at 10-11. But even with Hudl not counting all the Shots, they still have Angel City accruing more xG, 1.28 to 0.98. Partially, I think that’s not giving enough to van Zanten’s goal (only 0.09, even though it was from only about 3 yards out). And I don’t think that anyone is going to say that 1.28 xG is consistently going to be enough, but it is always better to have more xG than your opponent. The difference in this game, I think is that San Diego go a lucky bounce when Dudinha’s shot deflected off Gorden and into the net, plus a truly exquisite Dudinha cross for the second goal. On the other hand, Fuller put a really great opportunity (0.2 xG) over the bar, and Suarez missed two really great chances (0.26 and 0.17 xG). While she kept her shots on frame, I think that they were both very weak, and both were straight at Haračić. If one of those three shots goes in and/or Dudinha’s shot doesn’t hit Gorden, then Angel City is likely getting at least a draw if not a win. This game came down to really just a few moments, and San Diego got the breaks.

Rosters

The thing is, that’s not an accident. San Diego has a top class midfielder in Kenza Dali. In this match, she had 52 Total Passes (9 Progressive, 13.09% of her team’s share). Of ACFC’s two CDMs, Borges had 29 Total Passes (6 Progressive, 8.71%), while Martin had 27 (2 Progressive, 8.11%) for comparison. Dudinha has also shown that she is a top class attacker with 7 Goal Contributions this year (5.74 xG+xA, both 3rd in the league), and Goal Contributions in 4 games. Last year she had 5 Goals in 7 Starts. She is 4th in the league in g+, and also had the highest g+ on the night for both teams. On her goal, despite the fact that I think the shot would have been saved were it not for the deflection, Dudinha absolutely broke the ankles of both Borges and Sams, probably our best defender and defensive midfielder. It was world class dribbling to make that chance happen. Her assist was also sublime, which I’ll discuss more in the Goals section.

Angel City doesn’t have a player of that caliber in either the midfield or attack, in my opinion. We did have both, at different points in recent history, but Alyssa Thompson went to Chelsea, and Hina Sugita is out for the season. It is impossible to keep track of the financials in the NWSL because so much is not public, but here is what I can say. San Diego brought in Dudinha last year for an undisclosed fee (but not for free) and then also spent $800,000 (plus $200,000 in add-ons) to add Ludmila in the offseason. The really big signing, though, was Catarina Macario, who is yet to make her debut with the Wave, for $300,000 (she only had 6 months left on her Chelsea contract) and a salary of $1.6M a season under the High Impact Player Rule. This is despite the fact that they let Kailen Sheridan and Delphine Cascarino go for free (which still boggles my mind).

On the other hand, Angel City received a transfer fee of at least $1.3M, and as high as $2M for Alyssa. $600,000 was spent on Sugita, while another $650,000 was spent on Sams, but that, at worst, has Angel City breaking even on transfers, and I imagine Alyssa is earning a lot of those add-ons; she’s been outstanding in England. Borges was signed as a free agent, while the other new players were from college. Angel City also received transfer fees for Zelem, Kennedy, and Gilles. From a salary cap perspective, Alyssa had to have been the highest earner when she left. The salaries of Press and Riley are also off the books now, as was Sugita’s when she was placed on the SEI. Emslie’s salary is back, but that should still leave plenty of salary cap room, especially with the High Impact Player rule (which I’m not a fan of, but other teams are utilizing it; we should too). Note: Flo Lloyd Hughes is reporting that the NWSL is eliminating all of the restrictions for the HIP rule. That’s a positive step, if true, but I still think that this should be collectively bargained.

My impression, again without hard numbers being publicly available, is that San Diego is spending more money, despite bringing in less money. I’m positive that Mark Parsons is doing his best to bring in new players, and I also think it’s crucial to bring in the right players. I’m definitely not advocating for spending money for the sake of spending money, and the last thing I want is to bring in a big name player that is past their prime for big money. Note: I’m also hearing that the reason that the NWSL is eliminating the HIP restrictions is to allow Sam Kerr to be eligible, and Angel City is a team that is speculated to be in for her. There’s a lot that makes sense as to why Angel City would sign her, but I think that’s exactly the kind of signing I don’t want to see. Kerr is coming off a major injury and is 32. While she is an all-time great player, we haven’t really seen her return to the same form since her injury. Also, we’ve seen Jónsdóttir having more success in a central role, Tiernan also had her most success in a central role, Phair is projected to be a striker, not a winger, from the little we’ve seen, and hopefully we’ll see Leroux this season as well, who is also best centrally. If we’re paying a player $1 million a season, I think it should be a winger, or it should be Bunny Shaw.

But my point is that in both this game and the loss to Portland, I think that this highest quality player has been the difference. Angel City is playing pretty good football, but is operating at a talent deficit, and that deficit is costing us points. Angel City actually has the youngest average roster so far this season in the NWSL. Again, this is not a criticism of the front office, because I think that it’s important to take the time to get it right. That wasn’t done in the past. But I think that fans need to look at this team in the proper context. There is a lot that is going right, Angel City has positive xG differential in every game except at Orlando and vs Houston. There is even more work to do, we still have only 9 points from 7 games. This team will not be a contender this season, but can make the playoffs. San Diego was the #1 team in ESPN’s latest Power Rankings, and they did not outplay us. It came down to just a few individual moments. Four straight losses is tough to swallow, as is seeing San Diego celebrating a win in our stadium. None of that means that it’s time to panic, though.

I didn’t write about the loss to Utah, because I think it’s really just the kind of game that should be thrown out and never looked at again. I thought that the first half was the worst football Angel City has played this year, and that was before the red card. After that, it seemed clear that Utah wasn’t actually interested in playing. They had the lead and a player advantage, and they were content to try and do nothing for the rest of the game. I do think it’s worth saying that even though I do consider this to be Angel City’s worst game, they still outshot Utah 9-4, and had more xG (0.98-0.53). Again, I don’t think that Utah was actually trying to do anything, but this is another case where Angel City wasn’t outplayed, despite losing.

Goals

49’ San Diego, Dudinha - This was basically an own goal, as I have previously mentioned. Dudinha receives a fairly innocuous pass on the wing from Ascanio, but because Borges stepped up to challenge her, now Borges is running back to cover Dudinha. Angel City still has the numbers, 5-4, but Dudinha uses Borges’ momentum against her, keeping her off balance. Borges lunges in, but doesn’t get the ball, and Dudinha leaves her on the ground. Sams comes over to challenge, but again, Dudinha uses her momentum against her, and cuts inside setting up the shot. Looking at the shot from behind her, I think that Anderson would have had it, but Gorden moves across and deflects it into the net.

54’ Angel City, Sams - From a corner, Shores puts in an inswinger to the near post which is headed out by the Wave. Shores recovers, and tries to send in another low ball, but this is also blocked, and the ball rolls out to Sarah Gorden. Gorden hits a diagonal to the far post, first time. The ball clears all the players, but Haračić is too slow off her line. Sams hits it on the half-volley, and collects her first goal for ACFC. Of greater note is that this was Gorden’s first career assist. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a centerback-to-centerback goal, except something like when they’re both in the box on a set piece and one heads it back across to the other. Certainly not a long diagonal. It’s a shame that this accomplishment was overshadowed by the loss.

81’ San Diego, van Zanten - This begins deep in San Diego’s half with Wesley, who plays a simple pass to Dali, who is free to turn and face forward. She threads a pass through to Barcenas, completely breaking Angel City’s first line, and Barcenas is alone in between the lines. She plays another line breaking pass to Byars, who has her back to goal and lays it off to Godfrey, who finds Dudinha alone on the left. Dudinha, as mentioned, puts in an exquisite cross with her right foot, and van Zanten arrives at the far post to head it home.

I saw a lot of criticism of Anderson for not coming out for the cross, which I personally didn’t think was fair. However, I am currently at the Science in Soccer conference in North Carolina, and I was able to ask Tristin Stuteville, the goalkeeping coach at the Tampa Bay Sun, for her opinion. She felt that this was definitely reachable by Anderson. While her initial positioning was good, she got her footwork wrong, and wasn’t able to get across goal, even though there was time. Of course, I’ll defer to Coach Stuteville’s expertise here, but there are a few other points I’d like to make.

Allowing two line breaking passes in a row, especially right through the middle of the pitch, isn’t great to see. There was neither pressure on the ball, or creating a solid defensive block. In that whole passing sequence, Byars was the only one under any pressure when she received the ball. Secondly, after the first goal, I don’t think it’s fair to leave Thompson in a 1v1 against Dudinha. I don’t blame her for standing off (again, especially after what happened on the first goal), but somebody needed to track back to help. Giving Dudinha time and space just allowed her to pick out the cross that she wanted. Third, nobody picked up van Zanten. I think that Shores (who had a great game otherwise), needed to be more aware of what was behind her. But beyond that, Anderson actually points out van Zanten before the cross come in, but nobody marks her. Especially because van Zanten is a fullback, I think that it would have been fair for a midfielder or winger to track back to cover her. So while Anderson made a mistake on the cross, I think that the rest of the team could also have stopped the danger before the cross even came in.

Trivia: Becky Tweed has now stepped into a head coaching role from an assistant twice, once with Angel City when Freya Coombe was fired and this occasion when Jonas Eidevall was suspended from a previous red card. In both cases, the game that she steps into was ACFC v San Diego. In both cases she’s coaching the away team. In both cases she left as a 2-1 winner.

Stats are from Hudl and the NWSL

Angel City’s next game is Sunday 5/17 away to Portland at 3p. The game will be on ESPN2