ACFC 2-3 Orlando Pride
What Turned the Tide?
This loss stings, and it definitely feels like a game of two halves. The narrative afterward largely seems to be that Sam Laity threw the game away, but I’m not sure that I’d go that far. I definitely think that he got outcoached, but Seb Hines has shown that he’s probably the best coach in the league at in-game management. And I make a distinction between giving a game away and having the opponents take it. Orlando took over control, and consequently took the win, and they did that by having outstanding players, and an outstanding coach. Putting all the blame on Laity takes credit away from Hines.
This is the xG Race Chart from the game, from American Soccer Analysis and which I saw on Beyond the Vaudevillian Cane. There’s a lot to dislike here, from an Angel City perspective. Orlando had 50% more Shots and 80% better xG per Shot. They generated more chances, as well as better chances. The really bad thing is how Angel City never really created anything after Zelem’s goal, while Orlando kept coming.
There are two aspects that I don’t think people are talking about enough. The first is Alanna Kennedy going off with that nasty blow to her face. Kennedy has won the most Aerial Duels for Angel City this season (24), which is equal to the next six ACFC players combined. In the first half, Orlando only had two passes into Angel City’s penalty box, while in the second half, without Kennedy, they had six (plus a pass through the box that led to Banda’s goal, and an “unsuccessful” cross that led to the own goal).
The other big reason for the shift is that Hines changed up his fullbacks. Oihane Hernández came on in the 59’ minute, and Carson Pickett came on in the 73’. They both got assists from crosses from very wide positions, and it was Pickett who put in the ball that led to the own goal at the end. Pickett, especially, gets overlooked with the number of other stars in Orlando, and she hasn’t ever seemed to quite settle into the team. But her previous Louisville team was built around her distribution, and on four separate occasions she’s been in the NWSL Top 10 in Crosses and Key Passes, as well as twice in the Top 10 for Shot Creating Actions. That’s amazing for a fullback, and it’s an incredible luxury to bring a player like that off the bench. Oihane is also a World Cup winner already, and still getting better. Angel City losing their biggest aerial presence, combined with Orlando bringing on two fullbacks that excel in delivery from the wide areas is what changed this game.
Brief Thoughts
Barbra Banda - Angel City did a great job with Banda for most of the match. She was limited to only 17 Total Touches, and only 2 of 4 Passing. Banda having fewer Pass Attempts in 90 minutes than Grace Chanda had in 19 minutes is worth celebrating. Teams are starting to learn that to stop Banda, you have to stop the service to her, and Angel City largely did that. But that’s where that fullback switch really comes in. Oihane and Pickett were both able to provide quality service from wider and further out. That spread Angel City out and created more seams for Banda to exploit. So even with only 17 Touches, she still had 4 Touches in the Penalty Box, and of course, a goal. Still, these are the lowest possession numbers that Banda has had all year.
I’d mentioned before that I thought pressing was going to be a good indicator of Angel City’s quality this year. In this match, there was only 1 Tackle in the Attacking Third (Fuller), 3 in the middle third, and 10 in the Defensive Third. I don’t blame anyone for not wanting to risk getting caught in the open against Orlando’s counterattack, but Angel City is supposed to have the fastest backline in the league. In the end, it didn’t work. Which is another thing about playing Orlando; it’s hard to keep it up for a full 90 minutes.
I want to go back to a macro view and look at xG per Shot a little more. Angel City has 69 Shots (7th in the league), and 26 on Target (6th in the league). Average Distance is 17.3 yards (8th). These are all pretty middle of the road. But xG per Shot is .08 (13th) and Total xG is 5.5 (also 13th). Currently Angel City is overperforming their xG by 3.5, second only to the Wave. Even just returning to average here will plunge ACFC into a major goal drought. Thus far, Alyssa Thompson has been carrying the team in terms of overperforming xG, but she’s historically been kind of a streaky scorer. Of course, she’s also only 20, so we shouldn’t be saying that’s a definitive trait yet. But Angel City has to start generating better chances. Just having the same number of shots, but with better chances, will make a big difference in wins.
Concluding Thoughts
Right now, I think that Angel City is still an “almost” team. And I think that’s fine at this point. Keeping Banda to her lowest touches is good, even if she did score. Alanna Kennedy is tied for 2nd on the team with 11 Shots, but she hasn’t scored a goal. That’s okay, she will. Emslie is tied for 6th in the league in Shot Creating Actions (20), but only has 1 Goal Creating Action. My thoughts on xG per Shot fits here too. We’re getting shots, but there just needs to be a little bit better decision making. There are a lot of things that aren’t quite clicking, but they’re kind of close. And once Straus arrives, that’s going to require more time to learn and implement a style. So let’s learn what is working, or what’s close to working. Winning in Orlando would be great, but this team isn’t there yet. I do feel like we’re starting to get on track. I think that we need four more signings, at least. But I think it’s okay to see ideas that are 90% of the way there, but just not quite working. And this game in Orlando was almost great, even if ultimately it wasn’t. That is an improvement from last year.
All stats are from FBRef and the NWSL
Next game is 5/2 at Audi against the Washington Spirit. 5p Pacific on Amazon Prime. I’ll be watching to see how Angel City handles Hatch.