Matchweeks 1-4 ACFC

Through the first four games, Angel City is off to a 3-1-0 start, with 10 GF and 4 GA for +6 Goal Differential, which is the best in the league. It’s a great start, and of course, the obvious question is will they maintain this? We’ll take a look at that, but first, I’d like to look at how we got here, and what changes have been made.

Formation

Straus has made a really interesting formation change that I think really maximizes the skillsets of many Angel City players. Ostensibly, this is a 4-2-3-1, with Jónsdóttir in the striker role, Fuller as the right attacker, and Tiernan as the left attacker. This is almost never how they play, however.

As is evident in this graphic from ASA, Fuller as the RM tucks inside, forming almost dual CAMs with Niehues that looks like the top of a Christmas Tree formation. On the left, though, it would be too crowded for Tiernan to tuck inside also, so instead she often drops deeper for passes.

And while I’ve started by describing this formation in terms of the attackers, I think this it is actually designed for the strengths of the fullbacks. Thompson likes to overlap and carry the ball, and is already one of the best dribblers in the game, so Fuller tucking in usually pulls a defender out of the way, giving Thompson more space to carry if she has the ball, or if the ball is progressing up the left side, it often leaves Thompson wide open for crosses to the right (see her Goal against Bay FC for an example).

On the left, Shores is more of a passer than a dribbler. When Tiernan drops deep, that gives Shores a short, easy pass option (this is destroying Tiernan’s Receiving g+), or she can make the longer pass to Jónsdóttir, or the inside pass to Niehues. This can be seen in the graphic below (from the NWSL) showing successful passes from Thompon (20) and Shores (15) from the game against Bay FC. Thompson is generally further up on the right and making lateral passes or cutbacks, while Shores never really gets into the attacking third (with the exception of one pass after a corner kick), and is generally making passes up the wing.

However, what the movement from both Tiernan and Fuller does, is create space in the wider channels for Jónsdóttir to bend her runs into. It’s hard to run in behind in the center of the pitch, but works much better with bending runs into the wider channels. This formation maximizes the skills of Shores (her passing), Thompson (her runs into the attacking third), Jónsdóttir (her pace in behind, and ability to stretch defenses), and Fuller (by letting her drift inside, rather than start inside, she’s finding more space and is in a better position to receive passes).

Most notably though, it is not helping Tiernan. She did score in the game against Orlando, but generally, she has not been as involved, and her statistics have suffered. My guess is that this is going to change. As team’s adapt to this new plan, and try to contain Jónsdóttir, Angel City will need a secondary plan, and I think that will involve Tiernan. Her ability to create and occupy defenders are skills that are not being utilized, but can break games open. Jónsdóttir and Fuller are already doing a good job switching, but the current strategy lends itself to that: Fuller is naturally drifting in, while Jónsdóttir is derfting out. This isn’t as organic a switch with Tiernan, but my feeling is that it can be, and will be even more dangerous if they can find a way keep Tiernan and Jónsdóttir in the most dangerous spaces, as the play dictates.

The other question that comes to my mind is what will happen when Sugita, Emslie, and possibly Endo are all back in the team? Potentially, we won’t ever see a lineup with everyone healthy, but we can wish for it. If Emslie takes over on the right, where she’s usually played, she’s mostly been wide, right on the sideline. It doesn’t seem as natural for her to be moving inside the way that Fuller does. Would Sugita take over for Martin? That would make sense to me, but I could also see her replacing Niehues in the lineup, though I see Endo as the more natural player in this role. I could see Endo being a better facilitator for getting Tiernan more involved, and into better areas of the pitch. It’s also entirely possible that Straus will come up with an entirely different formation. This current setup maximizes the skills of a number of Angel City’s best players, so he may choose to do something that maximizes the skills of the players who are currently unavailable.

Sustainability

Is this sustainable? The short answer is no. Angel City has 10 Goals from 5.3 xG, and that almost 2:1 rate just isn’t going to last for the season.

The other part of the equation we’ve already started to see. Against Chicago and Bay, ACFC was flying. Against Houston, I thought that Angel City was only the better team for about 10 minutes of the match, even though it was a win, and against Orlando it was much worse. In the Houston match, the xG was 1.8-1.3 in favor of Houston, although a big portion of that for Angel City had to be Tiernan’s goal, which was from only about a yard or two out. Against Orlando, it was 2.34 to 0.68 in favor of the Pride. Both of McCutcheon’s goals were also right on the doorstep, and I’m sure they were high xG chances, but probably more importantly was that Angel City could only get 0.68.

As I described in the first part of this article, what made things work so well in the first two games was getting the most out of the fullbacks in offensive contribution. Against Houston, Avery Patterson was a one-woman wrecking ball. This not only forced Shores deeper to try to contain her, it also forced Tiernan back to help out. Having been a midfielder, defense is not Shores’ forte. So rather than the attacking players overlapping in the opposition half, it was kind of just Jónsdóttir alone on an island. Against the Pride, facing the duel threat of Banda and Ovalle, Straus opted not to start Shores at all, but rather have King at Left Back. I think that this did help to contain Ovalle, but King is not as good of a passer as Shores, and I think that the build up play suffered as a result of that. We still haven’t seen Angel City face a truly elite winger (no disrespect to Ovalle, who can certainly be in this category, but I think that she’s not quite settled in the league, and they also haven’t quite figured out how she and Banda can both be at their best). When Angel City faces a Chawinga or a Rodman, I worry even more about how that will affect us. A strong opposition attack can actually negate Angel City’s attack too.

Defense is also a question. This graphic shows the rolling non-penalty xG Differential, and while Angel City does have the current best actual goal differential with +6, the xG Differential is -0.2. This is greatly impacted by the game in Orlando, which accounted for 2.36 of Angel City’s 5.5 xG Against, and 1.4 of that was from McCutcheon’s goals that were both on the doorstep and had ridiculous associated xG. It is true, though, that Angel City’s xG For is also going down, though. 4 Goals Against is also tied for second best in the league, but playing one less game also helps here.

My other concern is on rotation. As I’ve mentioned, there are players that have been out that can make an impact, but so far, we’ve seen pretty much the same starting line-up in every game, with 9 players starting in all four matches, and only 12 players getting starts. Of the starters, 11 of them are averaging over 82 minutes per start. None of the performances from players who are on the bench have suggested that they could provide competition for starting places, or even that they can provide any sort of game changing dynamic. In the modern NWSL, I believe that teams need at least 15 high quality players, and I don’t think that Angel City is there. When Angel City has midweek games to factor in, or other injuries, that lack of depth is going to become a big problem.

Now, there’s probably a good tablespoon of salt here, not just a grain, due to the small sample size of four games. But the initial indicators are that neither the offense or defense is quite as good as they’ve appeared through the start of the season, and that beyond the starters, there is not much expectation of contribution.

And that’s okay. As Straus has repeatedly said, this is a process. Angel City was never going to be the finished product after just one off-season. Last year Gotham was the 8 seed with 36 points, or 1.38 per match. In 2024, it was the Stars with 32 Points, 1.23 per match. That’s an average of 34 Points, or 1.305 per match. With four more games this year, that projects to about 39 points to make the playoffs, and I think that making the playoffs should be the realistic goal this year. That means that Angel City is already 23% of the way there, having already banked 9 points (2.25 per match). It also means that Angel City should only have to average 1.15 Points for the rest of the season to get there. This is very doable, and would represent a good season, and movement in the right direction.

I know Angel City fans are craving success. I do think that the returning players are going to help a lot, though I also think that Angel City needs one more major signing in attack. But I want to make my stance clear that this great opening to the season shouldn’t reframe the expectations that we had coming into the season, which as I saw it, was making the playoffs. I think this is still a team that I don’t really start to expect to compete for trophies until 2027. Once we hit the 10 game mark, we should be able to start making some more accurate predicitions.

Stats are from ASA and the NWSL, as we all adjust to a world without FBRef.

Angel City’s next game is Sunday, April 26 against Portland at BMO. The game will be broadcast on ESPN2.