Angel City 0-1 Racing Louisville

Author’s Note: Earlier in the year I was turning my focus on to some longer projects, with a little more advanced analytics. I also felt like I was saying a lot of the same things over and over in my match analysis, and as I didn’t have as much free time, I decided to forgo the match analysis in favor of working on more involved projects. But I did miss writing them, so now that I have a little bit more time, I’d like to bring this feature back for the end of the season.

Overview

There has been a lot of two steps forward, one step back for ACFC this year. Or maybe one step forward, two steps back. But I think that we are seeing progress. I think that Angel City came into this match with a clear gameplan, and they mostly executed it. Possession wasn’t surprising: 61%-39% in Angel City’s favor. For the season, Louisville only averages 41.8%, so they are more than comfortable without the ball. Instead, Louisville wants to win the ball high up the field. And Angel City did a good job of preventing this, right up until they didn’t, which we’ll examine in more detail later. For the season, though, Louisville’s average touches are: 157.4 Defensive Third, 170.4 Middle Third, 130.9 Attacking Third. Against Angel City, it was 154 Defensive Third, 140 Middle Third, 118 Attacking Third. They also average 6.77 Tackles in the Middle Third and 2.95 Tackles in the Attacking Third, but these were both down against Angel City (5 and 2). Of course, it only took one Tackle in the Attacking Third to make the difference in the game, but if that one moment hadn’t happened, I think that we’d be talking about how Angel City negated Louisville’s press. Of course that moment did happen, but my point is that there is something to build off. There was a plan, and it was working. They just couldn’t execute for a full 90 minutes.

Play Through the Wings

Things did not work out offensively with only 0.6 xG generated, and I attribute this to the build up play (with the caveat of acknowledging the star offensive players that Angel City has lost). Building from the back, we often see Martin dropping into the backline, between Gorden and Doorsoun, allowing them to move wider, and Thompson and Moriya to move further up the pitch. This worked in (mostly) avoiding Louisville’s press, however it also funneled the play almost entirely to the wings. Because Martin is dropping into the backline, that leaves Shores alone in the center of the pitch, and it’s almost impossible to get her the ball. She had 20 Touches compared to 61 for Martin (with the acknowledgment that Shores only played 56 minutes). The image below shows Martin’s passes in the game (graphic is from the NWSL website).

There is a lot of passing to the sides, and on the few attempts at vertical passes, Martin isn’t able to connect. The two most common recipients of her passes were Gorden and Doorsoun, and together they had the three highest pass attempts. We can see the next phase illustrated pretty well by looking at Thompson’s Pass Chart (also from the NWSL’s website).

Thompson is almost always having to go straight up the sideline. Now, to be fair, it may have been the plan to try to progress through the outside channels. Flint and Borges are a formidable pair in the middle of the field, and I can certainly understand not wanting to try to go through them. But I don’t think it worked.

The image above (also from the NWSL) shows all of Louisville’s tackles (both won and lost) and interceptions, and we see them succesfully winning the ball back over and over in that space along the sidelines, just about entering the attacking third. Tiernan was kept on an island, with only 10 touches as a result.

I also want to go back to Thompson for a moment. I don’t think that we’re seeing any chemistry between Joonsdottir and her. When Jonsdottir gets the ball, she almost always wants to run straight at goal, or straight at her defender, but that is not allowing Thompson many opportunities to overlap or get involved in the Attacking Third. Thompson leads the team in assists, and I think she is one of the most dynamic playmakers we have. She needs to be getting the ball in positions to make an impact offensively.

Analysis of the Goal

Clearly, Doorsoun was at fault for the goal. I’m sure that she would acknowledge that, and I think that this is also part of her getting used to the NWSL. She is probably used to having more time on the ball, and not having do deal with attackers as physical as Emma Sears. However, there are other factors at play. The ball is worked back to Anderson after an Angel City throw-in, and she has Doorsoun to her left and Gorden to her right. She passes to Doorsoun, which makes sense as it’s the opposite side of the field from where the ball came from, and there should be more space. Sears is on Doorsoun pretty fast, but I think there is a window when Doorsoun could have played the ball to Miyabi, but perhaps Miyabi to too far forward? It’s a split second, and Doorsoun decides not to make the pass. She turns away from Sears’ pressure, but now can’t pass back to Anderson, because Weber took away that passing lane. The other factor here is Macey Hodge. After the substitutions, it looks like Martin is playing a little higher, and Hodge is the midfielder that is supposed to facilitate the buildup. It’s imperative to have a numerical advantage over the number of opposing attackers who are pressing. But Hodge is behind Weber when Anderson is looking for a pass, and behind Sears when Doorsoun needs a pass. She keeps checking over her shoulder, so it seems like she’s worried about marking a Louisville midfielder, not being in position to receive a pass. Of course, Sears steals the ball, looks up, and puts in a ball for an unmarked Weber to redirect into the goal from 6 yards out. My next observation is on Gorden. She is appropriately wide when Anderson has the ball, but she is moving more centrally when the turnover happens. For me, though, in that moment when the turnover happens, Gorden doesn’t react to the danger, and looks to be moving into the shooting lane, which Anderson has covered, rather than trying to mark Weber. And finally, Angel City only had 10 players on the field, because Niehus had just had medical attention, and I don’t feel like the midfield adjusted for her absence. My opinion is that Doorsoun is still at least 80% at fault for this goal, but there are things her teammates could have done that might have made a difference. It’s almost never all on one player.

And as a side note: I see a lot of people blaming Anderson for the loss. When the defense turns over the ball and allows an unmarked player to take a shot from 6 yards out with a PSxG of 0.9, I’m not going to blame the goalkeeper. And I completely reject the notion that Seabert is a “winner” and Anderson is a “loser.”

Hina Sugita

Big news yesterday that Angel City have traded M.A. Vignola and $600,000 to Portland for Hina Sugita. I think this is a tremendous deal, but let’s start with Vignola. At her best, she brings pace and power to the fullback position and brings a goal threat unlike almost any other defender. She made the NWSL Best XI Second Team in 2023 with 3 Goals and an Assist from 1.7 xG and 0.9 xAG. Since then, however, I never felt like she took the next step toward being a truly world class fullback. I’m hoping that the change in scenery can get her to that level. Since the break, she has only started three games and all of those starts were at Left Wing, which I think was mostly through necessity. It seems to be clear that Straus did not consider her his first choice fullback, so this move probably makes sense for all parties.

Sugita, in a similar sense, seems to have fallen out of Rob Gale’s plans, with only one start in her last four games. Even so, I am a little surprised by this trade, as Portland are in the middle of the playoff pack, and seem to need a winger more than anything. Maybe they will be able to use that $600,000 to bring someone in on a last minute deal before the roster freeze.

Regarding Sugita, though, I don’t think it’s hyperbole to say that Sugita could be the best central midfielder Angel City has acquired. There have been some big names before in Ertz, Henry, and Zelem, none of which panned out. Ertz, from the outside, never seemed committed to Angel City, and her time was so brief that it’s impossible to take too much. Both Henry and Zelem never seemed to completely adapt to the NWSL. And both also are at their best when they are the central figure in the gameplan, getting lots of touches and having everything run through them. For whatever reason, no Angel City coach ever took that approach. With Sugita, there are none of these concerns. She has four seasons of NWSL experience with the Thorns (including this one), and she has never been the key figure for Portland, either, playing alongside the likes of Coffey, Fleming, and Dunn in those four seasons.

Still, Sugita has thrived. She had 9 Goal Contributions in 2022 and 2023, and 6 Goal Contributions last year. This year, she is only at 0 Goals and 3 Assists, but she has 3.2 xG and 3.5 xAG, which already a higher xG+xAG than 2 of the past 3 years. For some context, Angel City has never had that kind of contribution from a central midfielder. The best previous level of Goal Contributions was Clarisse LeBihan with 1G+4A, but she was arguably more of an attacker than a midfielder, and a portion of her Goal Contributions came from dead ball deliveries. Last year, Dougherty Howard had 1G+2A.

Sugita isn’t just an offensive contributor, though. Here are some notable categories per 90, with her percentile compared to other NWSL midfielders: npxG 0.19 (86th), xAG 0.2 (86th), npxG+xAG 0.39 (91st), Short Pass Attempts (86th), Short Pass Completion Percentage 85.9% (69th), Passes into Penalty Area 1.22 (85th), Shot Creating Actions 2.97 (75th), SCAs Live Ball Passes 2.62 (90th), Tackles 2.74 (81st), Interceptions 2.1 (98th), Touches 58.68 (81st).

Straus has said that he likes midfielders with versatility, and Sugita should be a great match here. On the stats above, I chose to include SCA Live Ball Passes to show that almost all of her contribution to generating shots is in her passing, and not from set pieces. She should be instrumental in progressing the ball from the midfield to the attackers. Her defensive stats are also really good, in the top quartile in Tackles, and almost the best in the league in Interceptions (only Taylor Flint is better). And I included her touches to show that she should be able to match this level of productivity at Angel City. So far Nealy Martin is averaging 56.8 Touches and Hammond has 51.7. It should be possible to get Sugita in the area of 58. This is in contrast to Zelem, who was averaging just over 80 Touches at Manchester United, and Angel City just could not, or would not, replicate that volume.

I also like the fit with other teammates, particularly Martin and Endo. Nealy Martin is at her best, in my opinion, when she can just read the play and jump in where necessary. Her understanding of the game lets her see the gaps and fill them in, but that also requires her to have freedom. With Sugita alongside her, Martin should have less responsibility with passing and progression. But Sugita is also strong enough defensively on her own that Martin shouldn’t have to worry about providing cover for her, which will allow Martin to move to whereever she senses danger. I also really like this move for Endo. I’ve never felt like we’ve seen the best version of Endo, and she always looked more dangerous playing with Japan than with Angel City. For as skilled as a player as she is, her best return has been 3 Goals + 2 Assists in 17 games in 2023. At the same time, she had 1 Goal + 2 Assists in four games for Japan in the World Cup that year. I know, that’s a small sample size, but I’ve always felt like Endo was crying out for someone to match her technical level to play quick, one-touch passes with her. Sugita might finally be that player.

Finally, I’d like to talk about the details of the deal, and the timing. As I’ve said before, I’m not worried about the playoffs. American Soccer Analysis’ model only gave Angel City an 8% chance of making the playoffs before the loss to Louisville, so rather than seeing this as a push for that spot, I see it as building for the future. Getting Sugita in now gives her a headstart on building chemistry and and learning Straus’ system. $600,000 plus a starting caliber player seems like a high price, but I think that Angel City needed to pay a little over market value to convince Portland to trade away a player at this stage of the season (although I think that Portland are also realistic that they probably aren’t competing for a championship this year and are trying to plan for the future as well). Also, just because of NWSL’s net transfer rules, it makes sense for Angel City to make a big money transfer this year while they have the profit from Alyssa’s move to Chelsea. Getting one deal done now should allow for another, possibly bigger move next year. And of course, Angel City were also in a worse bargaining position because Portland (and the rest of the world) knew that Angel City had all that Chelsea money and they needed to get something done before the roster freeze. So with that context, I think the price makes sense.

At the same time, I have to briefly acknowledge Kansas City’s front office. When they got Ally Sentnor for $600,000, that seemed like a lot, and it was briefly a record for a transfer within the league. But now after the Jaedyn Shaw deal to Gotham, and now Angel City’s deal for Sugita, $600,000 for a 21 year old forward who already has 12 caps with the USWNT seems like a steal.

Angel City’s next game is back at home at BMO on Monday October 6th at 7:30p. We’re playing Kansas City and if you’re not going, the game will be on CBSSN.