Predictive Model 2.2
Apologies to all for the delay in articles, but there have been too many life changes to mention for me in the last few months. And while I haven’t had time to share my thoughts, I have still been following Angel City keenly.
Something that was important to me, though, was having a follow-up to my prediction model. You can read the methodology in the previous article, but I added in the additional scores since July 1, and ran the exact same code to get these results. And if anyone is interested in doing the same as the season concludes, it can be found on GitHub.
Unfortunately for Angel City fans, the model still has us finishing outside the playoff spots, despite an increase of 6 points from the previous projection (3rd highest gain). A big part of this is that Seattle had the 2nd highest gain, moving them up 7th place. Gotham took the top spot away from Washington, which a 10 game undefeated run will do for you.
Portland had the biggest drop (-6.1), followed by Utah (-5.8). Losing Moultrie was obviously a blow to the Thorns, while it always felt like the Royals were overperforming. The most interesting thing to me, is that with most teams playing an additional 12 games from the last prediction, nobody changed their fortunes by much more than 6 points (+ or -), from a possible 36 points. Even Gotham going on that amazing run only improved by +4.8 points. I’ll be very interested to see the final standings, but I think that the model is performing well.
Playoffs
This is something I’ve been struggling with, and I think that I’m in the minority of Angel City fans, but I think that making the playoffs will actually be a bad thing. This is my reasoning. We have seen this before where Angel City has attempted to play a more dynamic tactical system, it not immediately working, and the coach getting fired. Then the next coach opting for a more pragmatic style, and getting some results from that. But nobody will ever win a championship playing long balls forward or taking speculative shots from distance. It can win a game here or there, but that isn’t a sustainable plan over a whole season. In order to have a foundation to build on for next season, I’d like to see us playing as we mean to go on, not 4-4-2 long-ball to try to steal a win.
In 2023 Angel City did succeed in their push for the playoffs. We were comprehensively outplayed by Seattle in that only playoff game, not even managing one shot on target. The next year we finished 12th (which was in part due to the 3 point deduction), and Becki Tweed was fired at the end of the season. This is the exact scenario that I don’t want to see repeated.
A big part of my concern here is that we don’t have a head coach. If Smerud were to have his interim tag dropped, I would be more supportive of a playoff push. But were another manager to come in this offseason (and there are a number of good managers available, for some bizarre reason), having success in one system will make it harder to convince both players and fans to switch the team to a different system. I personally don’t feel like Smerud has shown that he should be made the permanent head coach, but if he does take the team to the playoffs, how do you not give him the job? He would have accomplished everything that could reasonably be expected of an interim.
I tend to struggle a lot with the idea that being pessimistic about Angel City’s chances means that I’m not being supportive of the team. And really, there is nothing I want more than to see this team elevated into a perennial champion. But to me, that means avoiding Pyrrhic victories. Every game, I want to see ACFC come away with the win, but if we don’t make the playoffs, as my model suggests, I won’t be disappointed.